Back, What Happened?

Update: Giant patch notes

So I leave for a week and Diablo 3 decides to start building a new game.  Every class is getting huge boosts to power (only 1 nerf that I saw).  The entire class posts read as if they took the loudest complaining player and asked them what they wanted.

Auction house changes are coming too.  Big changes to how it will display items and allow searches.b  6 stats to search for means people will be able to find gloves again.  The entire system turned into a pile of cement at max level with the current UI.  Maybe Blizz can make some RMAH cash from this fix.

Paragon Levels are coming.  Once you hit 60, you can gain more horizontal levels.  They give minor stat boosts but also 3%mf/gf per level, to a cap of 300%.  MF is also going to be capped at 300% so that at level 100 paragon, you won’t need a single MF piece of gear.

I’m pretty sure I alluded to a system like this in the past, if not on the post then in social circles.  Many bloggers and players have asked for the same as well (Kripparian in particular).  The system can be used as a framework for future innovation.

To top if all off, the entire massive patch comes in a week – on GW2 launch day no less.  These aren’t small changes, massive balance changes.   Essentially a massive nerf to Inferno, allowing pretty much anyone to kill Diablo with only few hurdles.

So to sum up, Diablo 3 is not even 6 months old and there will be a larger update to the system than WoW (which is sub-based) has had in a year.

Diablo 3 – We Dun Goofed

1.04 Preview #1 is up.

Of note:

  • magic find is no longer averaged in multiplayer (this will cause griefing – needs a vote kick button)
  • monster hit points are being dropped in multiplayer
  • no more enrage timers, or heal to full on elite/champ packs
  • inferno regular mobs getting 5-10% more hitpoints (no biggie), champ/elite/rare dropping hp by 15-25% (big difference)
  • also, regular enemies are getting 4x more loot (most people skip them completely)
  • some affixes are being tweaked to be easier (fire chains and shielding noted)
  • Invulnerable minions are being removed (holy cow)
  • Increasing 2hander DPS
  • Reducing repair costs by 25% (currently ~50K for 100% repair)
  • 61/62 weapon dps is being increased to close to 63 weapons

Now, there are more blog posts coming and there’s no date on the patch.

Now, there are 3 ways to read this.  First, if you’ve never played Diablo 3, then this means nothing and is gibberish.  If you played but never bothered with Inferno, you’ll wonder what the fuss is about.  If you played Inferno past Act 1, then every single item in that list is a “Oh my god, why didn’t you do this earlier” type of statement.

Listen, Blizzard makes money off this game the more people play.  If only the “hardcore” can play, they make money for 1 month and then the game dies.  If the “casuals” can play, they make money for years.  Every single one of the changes helps the average player.  Every single one of those changes has been asked for since the first person set foot in Inferno too.

On a final, sarcastic gamer note, these patch notes read like beta patch notes.  This isn’t patch 1.04.  This is patch 1.1, as nearly every single aspect of the game mechanics is going to be changed.

What Side of the Fence Are You On?

This from the epic “content consumption thread” for WoW.

i dont want LFR on the same lockout. i want it removed. if players dont put in enough time and effort, they dont deserve to be rewarded with content.
What benefit would that bring to the game?

How do you explain to John Doe that he shouldn’t even think about raiding in World of Warcraft because you feel that anyone that can’t devote *this* much time to raiding just should not be allowed in? Furthermore, why would John Doe, the person that can’t devote *this* much time to raid but would like to, have any interest in venturing into Azeroth?

Do you feel it’s just alright to tell someone “sorry bud, you’re interested on this game, but you don’t have the time, go play something more fitting to you, like Solitaire”?

If you don’t see anything wrong with that, then it’s going to be difficult to have any kind of discussion in that topic. (Blue Tracker / Official Forums)

 

I think this is the breaking point of the conversation.  If you side with the poster, clearly WoW is no longer your game (as it was in BC).  Find another game with a huge artificial wall for progress, a game where the developers make content for a minority of players and have next to no return on it.

If you side with Blizzard, you agree with the “casualization” of content, where everyone and their dog should be able to play everything and get everything that the hardcore can get, time willing.

I think with MoP, we’ll see the end of hardcore raiding and gaming for the masses.  The space where there is a clear and definite divide between the haves and have-nots.  There are certainly some niche games around that let you do that but the flagship MMO that the world refers to has decided it’s had enough.  Cataclysm has caused a 25% subscription drop and that was primarily due to listening to the hardcore crowd.  Perhaps it was that the casuals now have more options (sort of how WoW took people from UO and EQ?) but Blizzard isn’t giving up.

MoP will define the way forward for Blizzard and WoW.  Either they maintain their user base or the game simply continues its downward trend towards F2P.

Hardcore vs Casual

The Daily Blink has a good description of the hardcore raider mentality.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think this applies to all of the so-called “hardcore raiders”but it surely applies to the vocal portion of the bunch.  While not being specific to WoW (the entire Mac culture is based on this), this mentality is certainly most prevalent in that field given both the longevity of the game and the sheer mass player base.

For a very long time, MMOs were designed around these people.  Hardcore players were the only players and raiding was what you did.  This was the essence of late Vanilla and TBC.  WotLK introduced a softer raiding cycle (minus Ulduar) making it available for many more people.  The game also took off like wildfire due to the horizontal gameplay options at 80.  Let’s not kid ourselves, it took 4 years to get to that point.  3.3 introduced the LFD tool, which completely changed the way MMOs were played and gave WoW it’s highest subs ever.

But the vocal minority moaned that LK was too easy, the game had been too simplified.  Not that the players had gotten better, no, never that.  Baron Geddon was technically a harder fight than Synestra….get out of town.  Long time players got better at playing, new players did not.  The skill gap between players increased dramatically as the game progressed and the numbers got bigger on gear and stats.  A 5% difference at level 60 was exponentially increased at level 85.  It’s much easier to balance a game around 500DPS than it is around 50,000.

So Cataclysm launched with a higher difficulty bar.  Hardcore players, with more skill, went through it fairly easily, with the fastest clear times of all time.   They complained that it was still too easy but better than LK.  Regular players hit a wall and after a couple months, quit.  Blizzard even tried lowering the bar with LFR for players to give it a shot.  Some regulars stayed but a lot simply left.  Servers are empty now and the subscriber numbers are artificially boosted due to D3 pre-purchases.  They should drop by about 2 million next spring, unless MoP hits it out of the park.

Do I blame the hardcore for the mess they put the game in?  Absolutely.  They are an extremely small minority (<1%) yet think the entire game should be balanced around them and only them.  You beat the game, you learned all the tricks and mechanics.  There is no challenge in the game that you cannot overcome now, other than an artificial number wall.  That wall is completely impassible for anyone other than you, essentially making the devs spend resources on 1% of the player base.

Get real.

What Do You Get For A Subscription

Giving SWTOR’s move to F2P and the apparent downfall of subscription based MMOs, it begs the question as to what you get for your 15$ a month.  If you look at a year’s sub, you’re spending over 150$.  Think of a F2P game and the need to spend anywhere close to that amount.

Let’s start off by putting the games into 3 boxes.  Subscription-based, where you get all options, all content unlocked.  Free to Play components, where you have unlimited access to content you have purchased (dungeons, expansion packs, bags).  Free to Trial, where you have limited access to various components (x number of dungeons/day, etc…)

The first type is more like WoW, RIFT and EvE.  The second is DDO, LOTRO, STO and most western F2P games.  The third is more like the Asian games – Vindictus is a good example and from what we’ve seen, SWTOR will be like this too.  Every Facebook game is like this too if you think about it.

It’s also important to state that some games in the 2nd type are so overly restrictive, that they function like the 3rd.  EQ2 is a perfect example of this, where even if you bought everything in the store, you still would need a subscription to have access to more stuff.  This model, to me, is simply a free trial where they milk you for more money.

So for 15$ a month, you should be getting access to everything the game has to offer.  Even in F2P games where subscriptions are an option, you’re given a stipend to buy additional items if you so wish.  The rate at which you can access items is interesting though.  A F2P game must release content (items, dungeons, etc.) at a decent clip, otherwise people won’t have anything to buy.  Take a look at WoW’s development cycle.  You get new content every 6 to 8 months.  In a F2P market, your playerbase would buy that upon release and maybe for a month or 2 after but then your entire money flow dries up.  This, by the way, is the reason WoW can’t go F2P.

If you do decide to just buy what you want to use, then you have to make sure that the other people you’re playing with have this as well.  Dungeon Defenders might be cheap but if your friend doesn’t have DLC #6, then you can’t play that content with them.  In said games, the social aspect is ultra important for the developer to make money.  This adds a peer pressure mentality to it all.

The Free to Trial type of game is an odd-ball.  Designed for the ultra casual, some in-game limitation essentially prohibit you from any long play session.  This is sort of the arcade game mentality that if you want to play longer, you have to pay more.  This revenue stream is extremely odd in western cultures and hard to balance.  Do people need to run 1 dungeon a day?  5?  How much should an extra run cost?  What do they get out of that run other than time spent in game and the chance to wipe for 2 hours and get no rewards?  Zynga’s extremely large financial downfall over recent months is a prime example of how this revenue stream is risky.

Now, I love me some F2P games and the entire business model.  I don’t want to pay 150$ a year for 1 piece of content.  For that price, I could buy everything in the store for DDO and have enough left over for a nice supper.  Giving players choice not only gives power to the players but great analytics for the developers.  If you see that 25% of the players buy X and 50% buy Y, then you should make more Y while improving X.  Who in their right mind would have bought the Troll package in WoW 4.1?

The next successful MMO will be one that launches with the 2nd business model and next to no player restrictions within the game.  GW2 has a chance for this.  Firefall too.  If I was the mind behind TESO right now though, I’d be crapping my pants.

SWTOR Going F2P

It’s official!  Hell, I think I might play the game again once it goes live in November.

The features list is incredibly vague. Given that raids have a 1 week timeout already and there are only 3, wouldn’t the free people have an actual leg up on the paying people?  Limiting flashpoints is even weirder.  It’s like they want people to stop paying them.

So what’s left in the subscriber world?  The Secret World probably has 4-5 months before going F2P, the game seems built for it.  TERA has under a year.  RIFT’s expansion will decide it’s fate (currently has ~30 servers, over 1 year after launch).  WoW’s expansion will boost numbers to stupid levels due to pet battles but time will tell what the market says it should do.

So at the end of the day, there are only 2 MMOs that are subscriber based themeparks that I consider AAA.  WoW and RIFT.  Well near 50 games have come and gone.  Amazing.

Let's Talk About Raiding

One of the best threads I have ever read about WoW can be found here.  It’s a very long thread, with reoccurring ideas but clearly a large divide between developer and player base.

The basic element in all of this is entitlement – or as alluded to later in the thread – prestige.  This e-peen mentality that “only I can” is so ridiculously absurd that I have great difficulty empathizing in any form.

I played WoW since launch.  I raided in every expansion and quit in every expansion.  Vanilla was impossible to organize and had huge walls (a-la EQ at the time).  TBC had gating, huge huge gating, that stopped many guilds from getting new players mid-expansion.  It was challenging, sure, but less than 1% of the entire population saw Sunwell at-level.  I’m not saying completed it, I’m saying stepped foot in it.  WotLK broke down gating and added challenge levels (heroic versions).  Raiding exploded, up to 10% of the player base completed all content at the hardest level.  We’re talking millions of more players seeing end game content than in the previous patch.   Cataclysm put in harsh raiding requirements and destroyed 25 man raids but they did bring in the LFR tool.  It went from 10% completing the content at hardest level to over 30% completing it at normal and 75% actually seeing the content in some form.

Now, I get the idea of prestige and that you want to be able to show that you did something more challenging than other people.  World firsts are for that.  I understand that the 5% debuff per month on last tier raiding annoys the uppers that have already done it as there’s no indication they didn’t have the buff outright.  I don’t understand why Blizz can’t just disable mount/title rewards for people that need the debuff to complete content at the hardest level.

I also don’t understand why this is such a big deal.  If you’re in guild ranked #130 in the world, who gives a flying heck.  Maybe the guild itself and those looking to move up.  That’s what, maybe 200 people out of 10,000,000?

It begs the question, who are you impressing exactly by beating content with the buff or without it?  If that list of people is under 100, then there’s no reason for Blizzard to look your way.  If it somehow impacts say, 5% of the playerbase, then ya, Blizzard should pay attention!

Tangentially, a SWTOR dev stated that the game failed because they listened to players.  I think this might be true in that the content from 1-50 was amazing. It was impossible to test end-game content (the stuff that’s broken) in beta as the game wipes happened every 2 weeks.  This meant that players that reached level 50 in beta were putting in 50+ hours a week to get there – not exactly who your target player base should be.  Anyhow, I think this is a great example of a company that had super success by listening to their players but did so at the wrong time and without the wrong tools.

When is it borrowing?

An interesting article on IGN from a developer who has yet to be stolen from got me thinking.  Is there a point where you can say it’s stealing and not simply influence?

Watching Torchlight assets being stolen (along with misspelled file names) seems a rather clear event of theft.  Having Zynga use the same Tiny Tower play style and graphic styles for their Dream Heights game makes me think theft, but more so because Zynga is the one doing it and they’ve done it for every one of their games.  Uniloc suing Mojang for patent infringement though, that’s grey for me.  The entire patent industry is full of trolls just trying to find a big fish to make some cash and Uniloc has done it in the past.

I don’t think you can steal an idea but you can steal an implementation of that idea.  If I drew a black and white anomorphic mouse that talked, you bet Disney would be all over me.  If I drew him blue and pink, I’d be fine though.

In games, certainly there are limitations on the art assets of main characters.  Ezio in Assassin’s Creed and Marcus Phoenix are identifiable and likely people won’t try copying them.  But the secondary characters in both games are stereotypes that you’ll find in many others.  If I had 1000 characters in my game and took 200 of them from another – straight copy mind you – would that diminish the quality of my game?  At what point does it?

WoW made it’s success from being able to take existing systems and improve upon them.  They certainly innovated with the LFD/LFR tools and in-game flight but every other system clearly existing in another game first.  Rift further improved on those systems with dynamic content (to some degree) but it still used the same systems.  TOR is the same.

Back to the original story.  Borderlands is an amalgam of FPS and RPGs that has yet to be replicated.  I think it’s fair to say that it had success as 2 years later, the game still has a fairly solid multiplayer going on.  It’s surprising to me that no one has attempted this model again.  There is certainly some money to be made.

Perhaps there isn’t a defined line for theft and inspiration.  Maybe it’s up to the people to decide when it’s clear theft (Torchlight), system inspiration (Tiny Tower) and trolling (Mojang).  It sure does make for an interesting read.

Man of Steel

Though Batman rules the box office right now, some new trailers are out for Man of Steel for us to take a look at.

There’s this thing about Batman and Superman, being two sides of the same coin.  Neither will kill, both have strong morals.  One is more brains than brawn, while the other is simply an unstoppable force.  Where they differ is in their “normal” selves.

Quentin Tarantino got it right in Kill Bill – Superman is not the disguise, Clark Kent is.  Where the symbol of Superman is who he is, Batman actually has to don a cape and mask to get the point across.  The sense of purity, of greatness, of infallibility is what makes Superman a superhero.  Though his actions speak loudly, who he is as a person is what people aspire to be.  He is truly a symbol of all that is good.

Batman differs in that his “normal” persona is actually nicer than his caped version.  A multi-billionaire philanthropist, Bruce Wayne is himself a beacon of good.  Batman, as a persona, is a vigilante, skirting the law in order to provide justice to the whole.  There is a darkness in that aspect, one that humans can relate to much more easily than they can Superman.  I suppose that’s why one is an alien and one is human.

In my off-line time, I have discussed these points for near on 20 years now with friends on late nights.  Comics on the whole are simply a social examination of the times and that today’s reflection of Batman is so dark (Dark Knight after all) is quite fitting.  Where the recent Superman film failed was in it’s approach to overall story and setting.  I do hope that Man of Steel can find the right social resonance to not only make Superman a hero once again but to make him relevant as well.  We, as a people, need that symbol.

EA Stock

I mentioned a while back that EA was taking a drumming in terms of stock value.  Today’s stock number puts it at a 50% loss since SWTOR came out (along with the Mass Effect 3 plateau in March).

Now two things to note.  First, I don’t want the coders and testers and grunts to lose their jobs.  They are making an honest effort at quality.  They just don’t have a say in what that quality is, the executives do.  It’s an unfortunate aspect of the business but it’s also what’s causing a huge proliferation of independent developers after their corporate burnout.

Second, I want EA to lose even more money.  I want investors to destroy EA and Activision  so that the “for profit, not gamers” mentality dies a fiery death.  I want the days of Interplay, BioWare (pre-EA), Blizzard (pre-AV), Sierra et al. to come back.  We aren’t far from there right now, thanks to mobile gaming and cheap laptops with Steam.

I am sick and tires of another WoW, of another Call of Duty, another Madden.  There are hundreds of them out there, all fighting for the same piece of the pie.  My wife never games until I showed her Puzzle Quest a few years back.  No one is fighting for her to buy their games or for the 40 year old with 2 kids and a mortgage.

The good games are still out there, but the bad ones, damn, they are stinking up the place.