XBOX One – Tonedeaf

There are quite a few articles about reactions to the XBOX One reveal and, by and large, reaction has been negative.  Now that we’ve had a few days to digest what was and was not said, here are a few sticking points for people to consider.

It is generally agreed that the mobile/indie market is currently booming.  The average consumer is more and more device agnostic and will consume content on phone, laptop, tablet or console without real prejudice.  TVs are tools that only a single user can control and they are far from personal.  If I want to watch a movie and not bother my wife, I’ll use our tablet, for example.  Ok, we got that part.  Now watch this clip that shows all the times the words TV, Sports and Call of Duty were used in a 1 hour period.

Back?  Cool.

Let’s consider for a second what the XBOX core market is, the ones who are paying 15$ a month for services.  That’s right, gamers.  They aren’t paying that money to view adds, to use Kinect, to stream media.  The entire core structure of the XBOX community, the ones that actually tuned in to the presentation, they are all gamers.

Microsoft instead chose to demo voice activated controls, TV Skype (who in the world would use that?), football stats and streaming for nearly 40 minutes.  Content that no one who was paying attention cared two bits about.  I should add that the TV streaming controls will only be available in the US, which if memory serves correctly, is less than half of their user base.  Gamers got to see a new dog in Call of Duty.  Yay?

The real questions, the ones that have been around in rumors for months we either dismissed or confusingly answered.  Here’s what I’ve been able to find.

Does the console require internet access?  Yes and no.  You need to connect to the internet every 24 hours.  I have a few friends that will be unable to accommodate this as their only option for internet is satellite.

Can it support used games? Yes and no.  Games are installed and attached to a user account.  Transferring games will have a fee – to be disclosed.

Is is backwards compatible?  Not at all.  I get this from the console disk perspective.  I don’t get this from the XBLA portion.  This is also a massive gamble that the games that will come out will be worth buying a new console.  WiiU learned this lesson well.

How much will is cost? No idea.

What games can I play? Wait until E3.

How will it support the indies? Oddly enough, it will get worse than compared to the 360.  Devs will be unable to self-publish (they can on the PS) and additional controls will be added to the new XBLA market – effectively making it harder to get games out.

What kind of power does it have? The architecture between the XBOX and the PS4 are nearly identical, meaning that designing a game for one console will be practically the same as for another – a good thing for gamers.  That being said, the PS4 is 33% to 50% more powerful.  This isn’t hidden power like the 360 vs. PS3, this is readily accessible power.

Does it still have a subscription when every other option is free? Please note that the PS service is free, 95% of every home media service is free other than the hardware cost and every “cloud service” for gaming is currently free.  Microsoft has been mum on this.

Can I play games instantly? Apparently yes, since the system is “always on”.  (Having a Kinect camera always on in a room is a problem for me.)  When you get a new game, pop it in, you can play right away while the game installs a hard copy.  Once installed you no longer need the disk (just like a PC).  Extremely confusing is that the HDD is 500 gigs.  With my experience with Microsoft products, you’re going to be lucky to get 400 free.  You need that 400 to control all streaming content, other downloads, PVR support and a pile of other features.  500 gigs is not “future proof”.

Conclusion

After reading everything I could find on this, I am left with the conclusion that Microsoft is hedging their bets that consoles are dead and that media centers are the way of the future. They somehow believe that Kinect, being always on, is a good thing in a room with more than 2 people.  They believe that the TV (a single one) is the center of entertainment in a house.  They believe that people have 50+ inch screens to multi-task while watching a movie or TV.  They believe that games will sell on their own.

I think the price point here is going to be the real answer.  If the XBOX One turns out to be a fancy remote control for TV, what are people willing to pay?  Even if E3 showed 10 amazing games, I personally have yet to see a reason to upgrade.

XBOX One Launch – Hmmm

So the time came and went and Microsoft surprised next to no one when they showed next to nothing related to games and everything related to a new home media center.

Here’s a decent comparison chart between both the PS4 and the X1. I’m actually surprised that with 3 months of time between the Sony event and this one, that Microsoft couldn’t come up with something better than Kinect 2.0 and group Skype.

The real question heading into today was if the new X1 would require a persistent internet connection.  The answer is a definite maybe – Microsoft posted some stuff then deleted it.  From what we do understand, games will require a physical install, load instantly, and likely require a fee to transfer to another account.  Essentially killing the used game industry in a small blow.   Interesting.

Consoles are used as access points for games.  X360 and PS3 are very poor experiences compared to PCs today.  My PS3 can take 2 minutes or up to 10 depending on if there’s a patch I need.  My PC is just always ready.  My PS3 is tethered to a single screen, my laptop can connect to anything.  I have a controller for both.  The difference between what I’m typing on today and what was shown was the media console.

How exactly is cable TV and movies going to work on a console?  They spent 30 minutes on those features, which I’m sure Comcast, Bell and Rogers are asking questions about too.  Integrated with locally installed content?  Ok, I have that already.  With live TV?  What’s that going to cost?  Swap seamlessly between it all?  With 8 gigs of RAM?  That, to quote a great mind, is unpossible.

So after a few hours to think about it, I don’t see how Sony or Microsoft really gained “points” with the gaming crowd with either demonstration so far.  Neither showed anything that qualified as games.  They all touted more realism and more polygons, like every other console launch ever.  I do know Sony is aiming for a more “low cost/free” approach to gaming and that Microsoft is really adamant to keep the “pay me now and later, and some in-between too” model.  Considering that BOTH new consoles are service-based rather than simply tools to get to games, I am extremely curious to see how both companies will monetize the bells and whistles they’ve been touting.

Differing Opinions

I read Tobold’s blog not because I agree with him but rather because I don’t.  He often starts with complicated ideas, boils them down to a black and white question and picks a side.  It’s hard to think of a personal gaming blog that elicits more comments, both for and against, so something must be working.

A recent case in point is the defense of EA argument.  In it, he postulates that disagreeing with an artist’s intended ending isn’t grounds to dismiss the game or the artist completely.  Perfectly reasonable.  Applying this logic to Mass Effect 3 however, the argument loses ground.

Rohan has a solid critique of the ending and the idea here is that a story’s ending, a twist though it might be, is dependent on the preceding elements in order to be accepted.  Casablanca might not have a happy ending but it’s acceptable and memorable due to the characters remaining true to the entire story to that point.  Bioshock Infinite might not please everyone but you can’t deny that each and every character gives additional weight to the ending through their actions in-game.

Some might have read the Sword of Truth series by Terry Goodkind.  The first half of that series was pretty solid, the second half, so-so.  The ending was a massive Deus Ex Machina – magic saves everything.  It completely nullifies the rest of the story up until that point because the entire series could have been wrapped up in book 1.  Mass Effect 3’s ending was so poor, so full of plot holes, that they needed to retcon a few things and clarify some leaps in logic for people to accept the ending.  Even then, barely a decision you made up until that point had any impact whatsoever on the options presented to cap the series.  Starchild?  Really?

To the original topic.  EA didn’t win the golden poop because of the ME3 ending.  They won it for micro-transactions in every game, poor quality games, draconian DRM practices that inhibit gaming and for generally being so out of touch with what they are delivering that they want to blame everyone but themselves.  EA hires great companies with great ideas and somehow manages to burn out every original idea and spit out a husk of a former team.  There has to be a balance somewhere between the game experience and the bottom line – hopefully EA can find that again.

So I Hear You’ve Been Living In A Cave

First with the introductions.  Adam Orth is the creative director for games at Microsoft.  He sent out a tweet, in response to rumors that the next XBOX is going to require always-on internet, that basically said he didn’t get what the problem was.

MS twitter

To which many a person replied.  Orth then compared internet access to electricity, in that it’s just always there.

A few points.  Point the first.

Now, I’m no rocket scientist but I do knows my stuff things.  My electricity goes down maybe twice per year and I might suffer a brownout or two (where it drops and comes back suddenly).  My internet however, goes down more than a few times per week due to multiple issues, the least of which is a crappy router.  My provider, as reliable as they are, still are not anywhere close to the reliability of electricity.  And I live in a high urban area.  My friends in the burbs or in the country, well they either don’t have access at all or suffer through horrendous service and garbage speeds.

I know people who live year round near my cottage have no internet other than tethering to a phone, facing north, in a special 4in x 4in corner, with no clouds, and no one can move while the internet is up.

Point B)

Has Mr Orth been living in a cave this past month?  Year?  There wasn’t a day in March that didn’t talk about SimCity and the always-on requirement.  Hell, it (partly) cost the CEO of EA his job.  Diablo 3 is standing right behind you, same with the UPlay from Ubisoft.  Steam is somewhere there smiling too, what with the offline mode and all.  Always-on is clearly not ready for prime time.  Unless you want to cut your market share.

Point the 3rd.

It is hard to believe that someone so highly placed within MS think this way.  Even more so when it comes to the gaming division.  I have such a hard time believing it that I am beginning to think that his account was hacked.  That truly seems to be a more reasonable answer to this.  Or, the entire point of the tweet was to gauge the public’s readiness – maybe.  That seems too meta for MS though.

Final Sum

Here’s what I’m thinking is going to happen next.  Orth is going to tweet a clarification of some sort (or move companies).  Microsoft is going to modify their always-on requirement so that offline play is possible. There will continue to be massive speculation about always on until MS comes out with an official statement.  Until that statement, every discussion about that console is going to likely be negative press.

New Gadget

My wife owns a Galaxy Tab 10.1, which I use often enough.  I have a customized gaming laptop for gaming sessions but the mobile aspect of the tablet form factor is really appealing.  We were at a cottage for a large chunk of the holidays and it was easy to have the tablet around for a quick spot of Netflix, keep track of emails of even check the news with a coffee in the morning.

I’ve been looking at options and I see very few that appeal to me.  While the iPad 4 is shiny, has great power, decent battery life and a slew of accessories, the price point is simply ridiculous.  I can practically buy an ultrabook for the same price.  Plus the whole 4:3 ratio seems 5 years old.

The Acer Transformer Infinity has the same power, better battery life and a keyboard attachment that is just bat-crap crazy.  I could connect the thing to my TV with a simple dongle, increase my storage space with an SD card and a wide range of other features. Sadly, they stopped making the keyboard and I can’t find anything to replace it with.  Argh!

Google’s Nexus 10 looks amazing, has more power and features than any other Android app, beats the iPad in every benchmark but has no stock anywhere.

This is discounting the software edge that Apple has.  Nearly every application is  designed for Apple first, then ported (often poorly) to Android.  And most Android apps are made for phones (Facebook is a major offender).

CES is here though and hopefully I’ll spot something that makes sense.

I Swear

Google is like a little robot living in my head.

Search term “ninja brought back from dead giant lightning bolt robots movie” and the first result is Casshern.

Amazing movie.

 

Netflix

So I finally decided to give Netflix a try.  Reason is simple, Rogers and Blockbuster are gone, so it’s nigh impossible to get a movie now unless I want to buy it.  Online movies typically require planning, having to download the entire thing before watching.  Zip gives you access to a small subset and you have to wait for it to show up at the door.  Plus, at 8$ a month, it’s cheaper than any other option (other than pirating).

Now the downside is significant, the library at Netflix is much smaller than any other outlet.  Want to watch Indiana Jones? Too bad.  Star Wars?  Nope.  Mission Impossible 3?  Not likely.  You do get things you won’t get elsewhere though.  Conan, BBC Sherlock, Chitty  Chitty Bang Bang (heh).

As a movie distributor, I have to be wondering exactly how I can get home sales up.  Rogers and Bell offer home videos through their cable services but only recent releases and nearly no TV shows – plus the price is absurd.  Hulu doesn’t exist up here and Netflix is the only true movie distribution service all Canadians have access to.  How do we get more?  Boxee isn’t so much a service as a portal for existing content.  I tried it and it’s essentially a web browser that comes with links to cable channel’s web content (like watch.spacecast.com). It’s a shortcut, not a service,

Would I pay more for more selection?  Probably, to a certain point.  Would I pay a premium for some films?  Likely a 1-2$ fee for new releases.  Perhaps give people a credit for the month and they can purchase more for premium movies.  If I was working for Netflix, I would be knocking on every door out there to increase my catalogue and trounce any possible competition. Especially before Hulu or another service comes along.

Nearly everyone has internet and the majority can stream high quality content.  Netflix is 75% of traffic in the peak TV hours.  The road is ahead of us and the true trailblazers are going to make a killing.

The Death of the PC

Remember when people said the PC was dead?  Wasn’t too long ago that most people were console die-hards and the PC market was having a heck of a time getting anything to work properly.  Here we are in 2012 and I would venture to say that the PC market is healthier than the console market.

How does something go from the edge of death to market leader?  Quite a few reasons.

  • Steam (or others) allow me access to any game without going to a store or inserting a disk
  • I use the same device for email/web as I do to game
  • Consoles cost nearly as much as a laptop nowdays
  • I can bring my laptop anywhere to game, can’t bring my console without a TV to connect to
  • PC games are cheaper and offer more personal customization (UI, controllers, etc..)
  • I can game while someone watches TV, in the same room
  • Way more content available for the PC than the consoles
  • The tablet market has pushed Flash/Mini-apps to mid/high quality
  • I can connect my PC to my entertainment system if I want, for the same/better experience
  • Miles more innovation in the PC market

There are 2 things going for consoles at the moment – compatibility and exclusives.  PCs are different in configuration so you can have conflicts.  This has improved drastically in the past few years with abstraction and better resource management.  It’s no longer a common problem as it once was.  Some consoles have exclusive games. The Wii games simply won’t work on the PC (naturally) but games like Uncharted are never going to be found elsewhere than the PS3.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say that consoles are nearly dead but they have some core issues that need to be addressed.  Content distribution is number one.  Games must be streamed on the next versions of consoles – it’s not a choice.  Second, the ability for companies to make quality games must improve – by removing licensing restrictions and improving indie relations.  Third, consoles must offer all the advantages of a web-enabled PC.  Integrated web browsing, on-device recording for uploading, integrated voice chat, friends lists, wireless devices, a better dashboard.

The console war is done.  Microsoft and Sony have lost billions fighting a war between themselves while the PC and Wii picked up the scraps and made billions.  It’s time for everyone to wake up and realize that a common platform is key to victory and that CONTENT is where the real gold pile is found.