I’ll preface this that I am not in the personality cult of Musk worshippers. Credit where due, but also accountability. Making inefficient processes efficient, I’m game. Filling in a niche, okie doke. I’m still waiting on solar panels and something other than Jules Verne’s version of tunnels (high speed rail is in every respect a better choice). The whole Twitter debacle is hilarious to me, as this is a man who has not experienced any sort of consequences and is an absolutely amazing grifter (SpaceX subsidies would make you shiver).

He ran his mouth, put in an offer for a company with horrible financials, accepted terrible conditions, and tried to back out. Clearly the lawyers were salivating at the prospect. I get that the folks working at Twitter are worried about job cuts – they will get fired and collect severance and the talent gap for those skills means another job (hybrid no doubt) is an option. The change certainly sucks fierce, but there are much worse situations. So he’s now leading a company with staff that have one foot out the door. Culture issues abound and headhunters are at the friggin’ buffet.

As for the actual mechanics of Twitter, this is even better.

Twitter makes all its money on advertisers, which is funded on two core aspects. First is metrics. There needs to be a lot of accounts and volume of activity. Bots be damned, the pump those numbers! Second is message control. Ain’t no company that wants their ads to show up in the middle of racist tweets or death threats – so content moderation is an eternal struggle.

So if bots are removed, metrics go down, advertisements go down. If content moderation is removed, advertisements go down. So that’s 2 plans that won’t make $$$.

Hmm, so let’s see if the content (you) can become the source of income. The absolutely insane thought of negotiating in public with Stephen King has to rank really high in my list of “shit that I never thought I’d see”. Apparently those who want a blue checkmark will pay $8/m to keep it. Which is such an astoundingly dumb idea as these are the people generating the content advertisers want. Freedom of speech has a monthly fee.

And finally, how can anyone in their right mind think that this person can be the CEO of yet another company and actually accomplish anything? If ever there was evidence that tech CEOs don’t actually provide any value, here’s the perfect use case.

This is Bond-level villain stupidity. And I’ve got my popcorn.

In some news circles, it came to note that Netflix lost subscribers for the first time in 10 years, and that their stock value dropped ~20%. In addition, they are looking at cracking down on password sharing (making the plans “household” rather than “family”) and examining a pricing tier supported by ads. These are interesting business aspects of a company that feels obligated to their shareholders to maximize growth and profits.

Streaming has existed since the days of Napster. People wanted content on demand and without commercials. Pirating was simply a necessary hassle to get there. Steam figured this out a long while ago. Netflix read those tea leaves quite well and offered a price-attractive option…

I’m old enough to recall, and have used, Netflix’s mail order system. I was there at the dawn of streaming. The pickings were slim at best, with maybe 4-5 things you’d actually heard of available. Time went on and Netflix dominated the scene with some rather impressive network routing choices to make sure the streaming experience was positive. The catalogue expanded to have more options of both familiar TV favorites and a decent selection of major films. Then they opted to develop their own series (Orange is the New Black), or pick up some stragglers that had niche appeal (Black Mirror). While binge watching was possible before with a DVD set, you could really binge an entire series with a couple clicks.

And then some interesting bits started happening. Series that garnered larger appeal were cancelled within a week of launch, effectively making a season a pilot episode (quick, name me 3 series cancelled on any other streaming service). The user interface simplified the voting process to thumbs up only (a precursor to YouTube’s removal of the downvote I suppose). The prior historical selection was picked up by other streamers – the loss of Friends was very noticeable. New offerings were thinning out, or perhaps becoming more global in appeal. Other streaming services came about and offered objectively great content. Heck, Disney+ was driven almost entirely on the Mandalorian, and The Boys drove a ton of folks to Amazon. The ground shifted subtly over time. Netflix no longer was the only fish in the sea, and the idea of simply gobbling up all the possible content wasn’t really much of a viable strategy.

These changes cost money, and if you’re not able to get more people into the system, then you need to charge existing people more. The average annual price increase has been 5%, over 10 years. It’s still less than $20 a month, which is a fraction of the cost of cable. Yet, it’s also competing for eyeballs and pocket change from a half dozen other streaming services. Which brings us back full circle to the cable days of paying out the nose for the odd chance something good is on.

Netflix is at an interesting crossroad. They are still the pack leader, at least in the global sense. If they veer one way, it gives an easy out for other streamers to follow. Losing subscribers means losing a fair chunk of revenue, let alone shareholder ire. Choices are present to either stem the losses, or find a way to reverse course. Yet Netflix is not operating in the same space they were 10 years ago, or even 5. Netflix doesn’t have a flagship product (Stanger Things may cause a bump, then a drop)… and folks know that they can easily cancel and return if something does show up. They had managed to build a brand loyalty, where consumers had a hope that something new was coming around the corner, or that a series would continue in a little bit if they just stuck around. Years of that was investment has been lost, and I can’t think of any example where that was successfully recovered.

The choice appears to be how best to survive, and nearly all of the options are going to sting.

An interesting report came out on the amount of commercial time saved through Netflix.  9 days is a LONG time.

I cut cable nearly 10 years ago and haven’t looked back.  My kids never really saw a commercial until we went on a vacation.  I can still remember them asking why they were stopping the show and how we could skip it.  I can still recall when VHS was viewed as the devil (speeding through commercials) and then TiVo.  How far that has evolved…

Back to the topic… that 9 days of commercials is a major source of income.  That’s money that isn’t being replaced, and I’m frankly impressed that the streaming services haven’t found a way to monetize that.  I mean, I don’t have any need for cable as there’s too much on Netflix (or other free services) than I have time to watch anyways.

My wife being a teacher, and me having some younger folks working for me…it doesn’t look like anyone under 30 actually has a cable plan anymore.  They just stream it, either with a plan or not.  (side note, this is certainly good for personal sanity by not having access to 24/7 news channels).

I’m a bit of the mindset that this is a FOMO issue.  Today’s society isn’t based on having a TV dinner on the couch.  You can watch almost anything at any time.  Live sporting events are the only wrinkle left in this… and the money there is draining faster than expected (*cough*ESPN*cough*).  When you don’t watch something like Game of Thrones, sure you miss out on the water cooler chats.  But then again, you miss out on the water cooler chats.  Fair trade.

Right, so this one has nothing to do with gaming or social stuff.  It’s pure science. Two step background.

Stephen Wolfram is hopefully a familiar name since he’s the brains behind Wolfram Alpha.  Google gets you clicks.  Alpha gets you answers.  He also developed a natural programming language (Wolfram Language) which is not what most programmers are accustomed.  He’s also a trained physicist, with a focus on theory.

Next, physics has two main branches – relativistic and quantum.  The first works well for things we can see with our eyes, the latter with things we can’t see.  We know they are related, but we’re not able to say how.  There’s been work for many years on a unified theory.  It’s been the holy grail if you will, and so far tremendously out of reach.

He recently put up a very long post on progress on reconciling physics using his own toolsets.  I am amazed at both the material and the simplified explanations provided.  Theoretical physics is a different language that only a few people understand.  The explanation provided in his writings is simple enough that someone with a high school education should be able to follow most of it.

The real kicker here is the approach.  He’s starting with a near blank page and applying a single rule to modify a starting point.  Then he repeats that single rule multiple times and checks the results.  He’s found dimensions, gravity, black holes, quantum bits through the patterns.  He hasn’t found the right rule for our 3D space, even after 1000 rules.  He also realizes that simulating our model would need run through 10^500 times.  Some of that can be compressed, some cannot.  That means that there’s still tons of work left to do, but the signs here are just mind blowing.

Does this have a practical impact on day to day life?  Right now, no.  Even if we found the answer today, it wouldn’t impact us for 20 years.  Yet that development would change the foundation of other research, and most likely change the direction of science as we know it.  Quantum Computing was a pipe dream 10 years ago.  It’s here now in the trial stages and still has a while to go, but if it works at scale… holy shit.  A unified theory could finally help us breach the media-based propulsion challenges (e.g. you need fuel and can only go so fast).  It could change communications to be instantaneous across the globe.

Still no definitive answers, but this is the closest I’ve ever seen for a unified theory.  Wowza

When I was a kid, I really dug into every PC spec I could.  I spent hours building the darn things, and from x486 until about 5 years ago, I would help other people build theirs.  It was ridiculous the amount of info required to make that work, especially in the pre-internet days.  But then again, most people had a sound card and not a video card – and here we are with the ability to link multiple cards together, and have a hard drive the size of a business card.

Technically, the foundations of PC builds are relatively the same.  It’s the extra flavor bits that make it interesting.  The video above is both fascinating (200fps is bonkers), and worrying in that the amount of POST/OC config options take an engineering degree.  (Side note, the RTX2080ti used in the video goes for about $1200US.  There are 2 in this box.)

I’ve mentioned the debate on PC vs laptop a few times now.  Laptop just seems the most practical way forward for my particular situation.

Honestly, 95% of this drive is because of the technical issues with Anthem.  Sure my rig isn’t brand new, but it was top of the line 3 years ago.  I’ve played most anything on ultra/high without problem.  Yet Anthem makes CPU/GPUs melt, leverages Denuvo (I think) which makes HDD melt, and pretty much makes any non PC-enthusiast rig look like garbage.  Let’s just say that the bar to entry to enjoy Anthem is at the highest I have ever seen.  Day 1 patch is trying to lower that bar, otherwise I don’t see how consoles could ever make this work.  Reddit seems to think that the patch did address this.  Maybe not perfect, but the 90s load times from the beta seem closer to 30s.

Anyways, back to specs.  As much as there are advances in the desktop space (PCIe NVMe bridges!) laptops are not that far ahead.  The good news is that it’s a simpler affair, with only a few places where it will muck up.  Let’s go over the basics.

CPU – i7 Gen 8 – 8750H

There’s very little reason to go i9 on a laptop, as you’re going to end up with a tank of a machine, for minimal value.

RAM – 16GB, DDR4

Most games will take 8GB, so having double and room to expand again is important.

Storage – 256GB SSD boot, 512GB+ NVMe M.2 PCIe

This is really interesting!  SSD for boot, I think it a given.  Sizes are all over the place, and experience says 128GB is going going to be running near 80% capacity.  Active drive is more fun.  Traditionally laptops come with a 7200rpm HDD as the 2nd drive, and maybe a 2nd drive for NVMe.  The important part here is to note that not all M.2 drives are the same – there are SATA and PCIe variants, with the latter being much faster.  GEEK ALERT – SATA3 = 0.5GB/s, while PCIe = up to 15GB/s.

GPU – GTX 1070

While RTX are available, the gains are minimal and only 1-2 games actually support ray-tracing.  The question then becomes which one in the GTX10 field.  1050s are too old.  1060s will give 1080p, which in practical terms is going to give you ~60FPS.  1070s will not reach 4K, but they will get you to the 120FPS mark.  1080s are 4K ready and real beasts.  Also cost an arm and a leg, and can cook an egg.  There are sub variants of GPUs as well here, like a MaxQ.  Just don’t.

Display- 17″ with 120Hz refresh rate

17″ screens are found in really small form factors.  They also allow for a larger battery.  15″ I find I am squinting for details.  The refresh rate is tied to the FPS.  Well, not technically but they are close enough that you can map.  60fps = 60Hz.  If you can get more than 60fps, then get a better display.  Unless you are loaded with money, a 4K laptop is out of the picture.

Networking –  Killer

Not much debate to be had here.

Ports – 2x USB 3 + USB-C/Thunderbolt

Need at least 1 port for a cooling pad (with fans) that also acts as a USB hub. Maybe could get by without.  1 port for the mouse.  You need powered USB ports!  Rest usually works itself out.  The USB-C/Thunderbolt port is gravy – massive transfer speeds and is the best way to get a docking station / external monitor to work.  This is the hardest bit to find in a laptop, you need to know the exact model you’re looking for.

Ergo/Placement/Battery – Personal

I want a trackpad on the bottom.  17″ laptops should come with a numpad.  Speakers should be on the top of the keyboard tray.  Cooling is out the back/bottom.  Thin is ok, but a “standard” size is fine too.  I’m done with the giant 10lbs bricks.  Battery life should be at least 4 hours for non-gaming.

Summary

I’ll be honest, it took nearly a month to get that shopping list complete, with daily research bits.  Finding the exact machine that has all these parts in it… I won’t lie, that is a friggin’ challenge.  Right now it looks like a GE73 Raider.  Maybe a STRIX/Zephyrus.  The Alienware boxes are just too expensive.

Time to set a product watch and wait for a decent deal

I’m Canadian, so we pay for things in Timbits.

Let’s start with assumptions first – any piece that is listed as the same for PC and laptop, the laptop variant will have at least 15% less performance.  HDD and RAM are the only 2 components that can be swapped on laptops – restricting upgrade paths.  PC have much larger screen areas, and much better options.  I used the canadian version of NewEgg  as the price search tool, just for consistency’s sake.

Now understanding that this is not ever going to be apples to apples, at least conceptually it should be close.  The requirements are then:

• i7 8700 (8th gen CPU)
• 16GB DDR4 3000 RAM
• 512 GB SSD HDD1
• 2 TB HDD2
• GTX 1070TI video card

Laptops

Given the fact that I can’t build a gaming laptop, I will be paying a premium for the build.

• ROG Zephyrus M is $2500
• MSI GP series for $2100
• MSI GS series (thin) for $3600′
• Razer Blade 15 (GTX 1060) for $2100

A “regular” sized laptop with a 1070 and a 60mhz screen seems to be the best price point, just around $2100.  It’s ~$500 more for a thin version, and another ~$500 for a 144mhz screen.

PC

This is more complicated, since I need all the parts, and arguably there is 10x more selection.  For the sake of simplicity, I will add baseline parts that are “middle of road”.

Now, I could shop around for better price points, hopefully all from the same supplier.  I still would need a new monitor.  And again, this rig would be ~15% more powerful than the laptop, perhaps a bit more.

Getting a custom PC build with this setup is ~$600 in extra costs as a minimum.  Some places had it closer to $1500.

One suggestion was to build a cheap box with my kid as a learning experience.  A quick search on that comes to around $700, assuming I don’t want it to catch fire.  Pretty much everything is 50% less cost, the video card is $0 (for onboard instead), and the CPU is around $100.

Conclusion

There is no viable conclusion on a blog, when cost comparing PC parts.  That’s farcical.  However, my gut telling me that I can pay near the same price between two products and get more for my money is quite attractive.  Further understanding that the PC build will last longer since it’s parts are inherently replaceable is also motivating.

I guess religion, politics, and PC/Laptop are topics that have no easy answers!

Or maybe we’re the crazy ones.

After my daughter and I finished up her hockey practice, I decided to go and pick up the RAM for the laptop.  I had already done some digging into which specific specs I had in the box.  I need to properly set the picture.  We had stopped at Booster Juice so she was standing in the computer store with this big container and straw, looking at what most sane people would call a junk store.

Anyhow, I catch the guy at the counter and he asks if I have the old stick.  I don’t, but I spit out the important bits:  DD3, 8Gig, 1600Mhz, 1.35volt.  (Say that out loud for a second.)  The look from my kid like I was talking some sort of space language…It’s enough, and he looks through a wall of RAM to find what’s needed.  This tiny little thing and we leave the store.

There were a lot of questions in the car ride back.  I start explaining what all that jargon means, and she asks that golden questions “why is it so complicated?”, followed by the geek question “can we build a computer?”.  To answer “to make people feel smart” and “sure, but we need to to some studying first.”

Computer Jargon

Or perhaps, I should say the abundance of ridiculous choice.  There are a half dozen viable choices of thermal paste today.  RAM comes in multiple sizes, speeds, and voltages.  CPUs are near indistinguishable (i7 has been around for 6 years).  It’s near impossible to pick a motherboard, or know what you’re buying.  And video cards…sweet baby jeebers – the GTX1080 has 3 variants (base, VR, TI).

And that’s aside from things like proper cases, power supplies, hard drives, and cooling systems.  Feels like I need an engineering degree so that I have a chance to see reflections in a puddle.  It’s such a ridiculously high barrier of entry.

I won’t talk about POST tests… argghgg

Simple Solutions

The PC market isn’t dying, it’s simply getting a smaller form factor.  I do get that PCs are even more niche now, but let’s be honest, laptops are the way forward.  At $500 you can get one that can do nearly everything you need, including some basic gaming.  For $2500 you can get a super slim ultra powerful laptop too – know that it’s entirely covered by warranty, and that it will work when you boot it up.  And with decent power management options, it can get through a day of work without charging.

I could build a PC for half the cost, but it would be physically stuck in a single place and 3x the size.  It’s pretty hard to “co-game” with someone with a PC, while a pair of laptops is stupid simple.  A port replicator gives that desktop feeling too.

Next Steps

As much as I would like to build a PC, I think for practical reasons it will be easier to get a gaming laptop.  Practical in terms of use, not purchasing.  Looking at options:

• Sager/Clevo custom build (exact specs, great price, massive size)
• MSI make some amazing rigs, at different form factors.  Stealth is almost an ultrabook.  Titan is a tank.  Raider seems a reasonable size.
• Alienware was bought by Dell and reports are all over the place.  Build quality is strong, but cooling & fan noise seem to be a problem.  They look amazing.
• ROG fits in-between the last two, with odd price points.

Key points I’m looking for:

• 16GB of RAM
• 256 SSD + 1TB of hard drive
• Upgradeable storage/RAM
• Thunderbolt 3 port (for docking/daisy chain to other things)
• GTX 1070
  • Not enough games actually support ray tracing, and this card is still gives 4K, at less than half the price of an RTX2080.
• 8th gen i7 CPU
  • 9th gen is marginal performance (5%) for ~$100 more.
• Solid cooling to keep CPU < 80, and physical laptop < 32
• Low noise levels when fans are at load
• Screen size isn’t all that important, but a 17″ would be nice

That fun stuff runs around $2500 – with that Thunderbolt port being the tough one to find.  More digging required…and no real rush either.