Predictions Retracted

Ok, so maybe not retracted but at least reset somewhat.  Wilhelm started it.  These folks followed through

My original prediction post is found here.  First, the resolutions to see how I did.

  • More cross-links to other blogs.  There are some amazing ones out there and networking is a good thing.

Ok, this one was an up and down.  It could have been better but it was a marked improvement over 2013.

  • Schedule blogs.  I find I write/post in a flash and might have 3 in a day.  I need to schedule them to cover other days.

This was well done.  I think I averaged 4 posts a week for the year and near abused the schedule button.

  • Get 5 posts a week.  I think this is doable.  It will be hard what with work ramping up worse.

4 is close to 5 right?

  • More indie games.  I play 3-4 AAA games a year.  I have not been disappointed in some time with that schedule.  I play about a dozen or so indies.  Some are great, some are the complete opposite.  Still, new ideas come from those games and they need more support.  Plus, I can get all hipster and say I played it before you.

You know, on the PC I didn’t have much success with this.  On the Android though… ok not much more success there either.  Transistor is likely the stand out this year for me though.

  • More videos.  I did a lot of videos for Neverwinter.  In fact, if you google Neverwinter my blog is in the top 10 for some reason.  I need to do more.  I really enjoy it.

I’ll admit, I am horribad at videos.  It’s mostly due to crappy upload speeds making it a 2 hour affair for any decent length video.  And really, you need to know something worth a video is coming up cause who needs a floating 10g video file that you then need to cut into pieces?  Again, crappy internet to even make Twitch an option.

Predictions

The Elder Scrolls Online – Going to go F2P within 6 months.  It will play exactly like a multiplayer Skyrim, which is what people want, but they don’t want to pay $100 a year to do.  PvP looks the most promising but knowing Bethesda, there are going to be some massive bugs/balance issues.

It didn’t hit F2P but the rest is pretty accurate.  PvP was the highlight for most people.

Wildstar – Most likely to retain subscription model and likely to pull players from the themeparks around town.  The MMO aspects seem interesting, while the gameplay less so. Player/guild housing is going to be a big bonus.

This one was wrong.  While I did say that the focus on raids was stupid, I had underestimated the sheer lack of development of anything but raiding.  6 months later, still hasn’t found ground.

FPS – CoD and BF are going to continue their dominance over the genre and launch as complete messes next year.  People will still line up like sheep to play.  It’s why you have an xbox/PS amirite?  Firefall finally gets its act together and launches.

I think this was as accurate as I could be.  The launch of Halo last month is a pretty good example too.  Firefall did launch!  And I dunno where it’s at, which isn’t so good.

MOBA – LoL will continue to lead the top.  Infinite Crisis will finally launch but only target a niche audience.  SMITE will take another chunk.  DOTA2 will be a solid #2.  We’ll see the first few mass audience e-sport games from this genre.

Everything true.  MOBAs are barely making it out of beta these days, which tends to indicate a mature market.

RPG – The continual demise of the genre will continue with our only hope the indie/kickstarter bunch and a few JRPGs.  It will continue to be integrated into every other genre.  The “purity” of the genre is lost but since every game and their mother has RPG elements today, I see that as a win for D&D folk everywhere.

Ok, outside of Dragon Age Inquisition (out of left field), this rung true.  I did like Sony’s double F-U to FF7 fans.

Adventures – 2014 is the year of the adventure game.  2013 gave a clear message that story and personal involvement was a massive hook in today’s “instant gratification” mandate.  Adventure stories are some of my best memories of the 80s/90s and technology has evolved enough to make it super intuitive.

While there were quite a few games in this category, I wouldn’t say it was the year of adventures.  Maybe the year of stories with a fair bit of combat.  I’m finding the market to be more bi-polar with age, FPS on one side and RPGs on the other.

Mobility – Everyone and their mother has a smart phone or a tablet today.  In addition to the Steam box, I see a new distributor/game link happening on mobile devices, similar to the PS4/Vita & WiiU.  Games will have online portable versions.  Public transport will return to the days of Gameboys going “beeboop, beeeyoooop”.  It’ll be great.

Hmm, hard to judge this one.  I take the bus every day to work and there are way more people gaming now than before, so that’s a win.  But there’s no real new distributor.  I also think that Android has finally figured out how to make the platform work properly as the games are near on par in quality/time as on iOS.  That said, the mobile market is saturated with way too many F2P (or rather IAP) games.

MMOs – LOTRO gives up.  Neverwinter makes a pile of cash.  Rift goes down to 2 servers.  EvE loses subs to Star Citizen.  WoW drops to 5 million.  SWTOR does a 180 and launches content players actually want to play.  FF14 hemorhages massive player base when TESO/Wildstar launch, stays subscription.  EQL/EQN launch and fall flat. SotA somehow manages to pull through and deliver.  WoW-WoD launches, sells record amounts and then has a massive crash as everyone realizes they’ve done it before.

I think LOTRO sort of threw in the towel with the last expansion and Turbine cuts.  Neverwinter indeed is raking it in. Rift had an expansion and seems to still be strong.  EvE was a slow start then changed to a 6 week patch cycle, which seems to be pleasing most.  SWTOR did indeed turn around after the crap of GSF and launched expansions people wanted.  FF14 did take a dive but recouped something fierce, is the shining example of how to do a themepark MMO today.  EQ stalled at the gates.  SotA is MiA.  WoW did sell like crazy and hit 10m subs.  The crash will be told in January given it launched so late.  It is, rather unanimously, the same game as before.

Overall

Pretty solid I guess overall, with Wildstar and ESO being the outliers.  While there were certainly some great games, the social aspect seemed to take most people’s attention.  Gamergate showed both how stupid and how bright gaming culture had become and had left to go.  I think the new trend though, is going to be ratting out kids to their moms. That always seems to be a hilarious story.

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