The previous post talked about lockboxes and the challenge around calling it gambling.  I argue that the distinguishing difference is that gambling is a known loss, with a chance at winning, while lockboxes are a known win, with a chance of a bonus.

There’s a fundamental weakness to this argument though and that’s the concept of value of goods.

This is actually a relatively old argument, and one that eBay struggled with nearly 20 years ago.  If you read any of the EULAs for modern games, they are fairly clear that the actual ownership of these items never belongs to you, but is more or less “loaned” and can be reclaimed at any time.  Let’s walk through those impacts.

Real World

Let’s say I buy (not lease, rent, or take a loan) a car for $30,000.  It has an agreed to value, using globally negotiated currency.  I won’t go into what the level set it (gold to USD) but I know that there’s a specific value, and the courts will recognize that value.  The car company and the seller cannot take that car from me without compensation.  I own it.  If they do take it, I can go to court and get my money back.  Hundreds of years of property laws cover this.

Virtual World

I pay for services, not products, as per the agreement.  Let’s say I acquire the Sword of Death in the game.  This has a high virtual value due to it’s rarity.  I could try to exchange it, using in-game currency.  That’s akin to bartering.  Two people, using an un-managed currency, coming to terms on value.  There is no legal recourse to this exchange.  There are certain ethical issues, and this is why you sometimes see game companies do something when there’s internal fraud (I use that term loosely).  Heck, that’s discounting the ability to acquire something yourself simply by investing time (say a rare drop from a raid), that cannot be traded.  Enter the P2W conversation…

Inflation

This is the increase of value of an item, based on the increase of available currency.  In the real world, inflation is controlled to a degree by central banks/agencies through interest rates, currency issuance and other monetary methods.

Games have sinks and faucets, and often times much larger faucets.  WoW is a good example.  10 years ago, 1000 gold was considered rich.  Today, 1000 gold is an afterthought.

Devaluation

When you drive that car off the parking lot, it loses value.  Anything used loses value.  Very few items ever increase, in natural value – typically art/gems.  Virtual goods are similar.  That Sword of Death becomes obsolete after the next patch by the Twig of Destiny.   You may spend an entire fortune acquiring one item, and then a couple months later, that value is completely lost.

Currency Conversion

There are plenty of exchange options for real currency.  Large organizations collude (that is the correct word) to set the trading rate, but are overseen by laws.  (see: LIBOR scandal).  This has gradual changes over time, and is usually based on GDP and inflation, along with overall market value.

Virtual conversion is also usually straightforward, as it is brokered by the game company.  You are buying virtual assets, to use in a specific bartering session, for an item that is unique to that environment.  It is a fairly rare occurrence that you can then resell that currency.  And you cannot transfer that item to another environment.

A real-world analogy would be buying a car in Paris, France.  You would take your currency, trade it to local baguettes (that can’t be used anywhere else but that car dealer), then buy the car that you can’t use anywhere else but Paris.  To get your money back, you’d need to trade it back for baguettes, then find a currency trader that wants those baguettes and has the currency you’re looking for.

Direct Buying Power

This is the crux of the issue – the real-world value of a virtual good that cannot be used anywhere else.  The Sword of Death in one game would have zero value in another.  You would have to extract the normalized (real-world) currency value, based on the exchange rate for virtual currency (if any).   Ex:  $5 gets me 20 gold, which can buy a super sword in Game 1.  $5 gets me 1000 gold, which gets me a twig in Game 2.  Virtually, they have different values, in the context of those games.  In practice, they have the same value.

The Lockbox Connundrum

For lockboxes to be considered gambling, the real-world value of the items has to be zero in most cases, and rarely above.  That gets even murkier, since many of the items in the lockboxes cannot be acquired by other means.  That special skin is locked in a lockbox, you can’t get it any other way.  And maybe that’s a premium skin, vs a regular one.  There is no real-world gambling analogy to that model.  Well, not entirely true.  There are many lottery types that are legal within a country, but not within some of their states/provinces due to the nuance.

The fundamental problem then, is associating real-world value to virtual goods.  There’s no scale, no measure, no consistency across the medium.  We’re at that lovely cross road of law, and of ethics.  Territory that is so uncharted and vast that no one knows where to even start.  It’s a multi-trillion dollar industry, there’s going to be pushback.

Now, that doesn’t mean that it shouldn’t be treated like a controlled substance (a separate fun argument), or that it should be absolved of regulation.  Ethics + money = regulator’s dream job.  Now, if EA was smart and wanted to head this off at the pass, they would set up their own board (with other companies) to set some ground rules.  ESRB is such an example.  But dollars to donuts, the execs don’t see the issue yet.  BF2 was the tip of the iceberg.  They see lost dollars.. not the hammer coming in for a swing.

Appropriate link to Hawaii coming through with tabled legislation on Loot Boxes.

It’s a bit like Icarus flying too close to the sun, and of course it’s EA that triggers the change. They are part of the 1-2 punch of game developers after all.  There are 2 main points to this, restricting loot boxes as if they were gambling (21+), and displaying loot odds.

Now, if I recall China did the same a few years ago.  Blizzard complied by giving the loot boxes for free when you bought currency.  If you’re not buying the box, then there’s no need to disclose the odds.  This has worked fairly well since Blizz pulled in $4 billion from all in-game transactions in 2017.

I’ve stated previously that I don’t think loot boxes fit our current definition of gambling.  Gambling today assumes that you get nothing, with a chance to get something.  Loot boxes always give you something, with a chance to get more things. Imagine if playing the lottery always had a payout, even 10c.  That would require a massive investment to distribute payouts to everyone… but software companies already have that link.  That’s not to say that the definition of gambling doesn’t need to change.  Plenty of other laws have changed.

Age restrictions – that one I can get behind.  There are no 16 year old whales.  A 16 year old with that much disposable income is much to smart to spend their money on virtual items.  Loot boxes are addictive, and they do a great job of nickel-and-diming you forward.  That’s their intended design.  21 is the same age as most other controlled substances in Hawaii, so the number makes sense to them, and easier to align with other legislation.

Displaying loot chances… does that discourage the people who are buying loot boxes?  Whales are keeping the games afloat, it certainly won’t impact their behavior.  Well, unless they are min-maxers finding the best route to an item.  It won’t impact addicts either.  Maybe it will impact the regular Joe, or stop someone from even starting down that path in the first place.  People knew for years that smoking killed, didn’t make a dent.  Change all the packaging to put cancer-ridden pictures (along with lots of restrictions on where to smoke, and services to assist in quitting) and the rate of smokers plummets.

Change for changes’ sake rarely works out.  Consumers are called “the money” for a reason.  Values and ethics have not caught up to the change in technology.  We can’t go 5 years without some sort of disruption.  It’s a heck of a time to be watching society playing catch-up.

The holidays are rarely a relaxing time for me.  There’s just so much to do and whatever time “off” I have is actually planned weeks in advance.  This year was going to be different.  Work had delivered a major milestone and after 18 months without any time off, I decided to take 3 weeks and do the stuff that mattered.

I ended up spending last week in Cuba with my family.  Great decision overall.  Read 4 books (including the entire Broken Earth series), slept in every day, lounged by the pool/beach…didn’t plan a thing.   I’ve gone to a few places down south but never over the holidays.  Much different crowd.  First, no 20 year olds on party mode.  Second, since it’s Cuba, no Americans.  An interesting thing that I didn’t really catch on to until later in the trip.  It helped that it was ~30 below (where C and F meet) that week as well.

The rest of the time has been spent just having fun with the family.  The ice rink in the yard is top notch.  Lots of games and crafts around.  A whole lot of cleaning and tidying around the place.  Went to see Star Wars (better than I had expected in that it willingly throws away the traditional SW tropes).  One hockey tourney to go and then it’s back to work.  Finally refreshed.

2017

Overall it’s been a really good year.  Family is super.  I’m in some of the best health.  Finances are good.  The job has had more progress in 1 year than should be possible in 3.

Gaming has also been kind.

• Horizon is my current game of the year.
• WarFrame is a platinum best seller on Steam and worth 5x what Destiny brings.
• XCOM 2 launched a DLC that is more than most expansions ever deliver
• Mass Effect showed great potential (and EA timelines failed to deliver)
• Dishonored 2 showed what a story driven sandbox can do.
• Shadow of War delivered a better nemesis system, but a broken end game
• Path of Exile launched two expansions this year.
• Quite a few more games that I need to eventually pick up
  • Cuphead
  • Wolfenstein 2
  • Divinity 2
  • A Nintendo Switch!
  • Nier
  • HellBlade

Aside from the slow down this holiday season, it’s been my most active posting in a long while.  There are many fewer bloggers nowdays.  Most folks have left and vbloggers have taken space instead.   It’s still quite immature, as clickbait runs the money in the first few years.  It takes a long time for quality to start showing up (as it did with blogging and online news), so my guess is we’re 2 years away from that.

2018

I rarely have any resolutions for a new year, not like there’s a difference between Dec 31 and Jan 1 in terms of goals.  Change is a gradual thing, though there are always goals that can be achieved.

Work should provide a new opportunity in the next few weeks, one that’s about 10 years earlier than I had planned a long while back.  My team has recently completed year 1 of a 3 year plan, and there’s a lot of excitement for what’s coming

I’ll keep playing hockey and working out.  I’d like to get to a baseline 200lbs bench this year and push from there.  There’s surprisingly little weight gained over the holidays and vacation considering my indulgences.  Back to my regular habits now.

The family will be heading to Florida in March, then open the cottage a few weeks later.  I think we’ll be focusing on saving money from that time forward as there’s a few long term plans that need some funding.  Still 2 months of hockey to go with the eldest, and likely some dance classes for the younger.  Both squirts are doing great in school, have a insatiable curiosity, and a solid level of autonomy.   All told the focus this year, as with last, is ensuring that I simply have more time for the family.

Of all the potential games in 2018, I’m only looking forward to Pillars of Eternity 2 and Ni No Kuni 2.  Darksiders 3, God of War and Kingdom Hearts are a maybe.  Anthem I am looking forward to seeing play out.  I won’t be buying it, but if it does launch this year (I doubt) it will be the real bellweather for how MTX work in games moving on.  I think we were spoiled rotten in 2017.

As for the blog, I’d like to have more cross posts with other awesome blogs that I read.  That means more work on Feedly, at least 3 posts a week, and maybe some more videos.  I won’t lie – blogging on a regular basis is hard work.  I am somewhat envious of both Syp and Wilhelm.

And with that, time to sign off and enjoy the rest of my vacation.

Lots of work, crazy deadlines, busy family, and then a chest cold.  Makes for a great weekend of flop sweats and 12+ hours of sleep a day, still feeling exhausted to start the week.  Good news is that there’s light at the end of the tunnel.  It feels entirely achievable.  Plus, the VP here sees the work being done and the need for additional resources/structure.  That bodes well long-term.

My eldest had 2 hockey games this weekend.  On her team, 11 other girls are first-time players, so the understanding of the game just isn’t there yet.  They lost Saturday 10-0 on  team that had that understanding, and won 3-1 on Sunday when you could see it start clicking.  I spent some time watching a men’s league game on the other ice pad, folks mostly in their 40s-50s.  They were smart hockey players.

I played about 12 years when I was a kid, but I’ve been back on the ice for another 12 since.  All of that pretty much competitive play.  The skill is less important than the thinking now.  We have a few skaters on one team where even though they are young, they just don’t have that mind-set.  Great skill and effort, but that 6th sense just isn’t there.  Work smarter – not harder.

Full circle a bit then.  Work is in the same bucket.  I’ve had enough crazy deadlines and projects to have a decent sense of what is actually important and what is noise.  I know some members of my team are concerned at my lack of attention on some things, and deadly focus on others.  It’s a practical thing.  Tough calls are needed, and there’s only so much good will to go around.  It’s difficult, but sometimes you need to let those spinning plates fall to the ground.

Warframe

I read Isey’s comment on my last post and want to extract the gibberish.

When I found that I had Liths via the codex (bur no clue what to do with them) eventually I noticed the prompt on the NAV screen, found the mission, jumped in with others, and got my 10 reactants to unlock.

This reminds me of 90% of Wilhelm’s EVE posts.  I couldn’t make heads or tails of it.  Then I played a bit more and unlocked Venus (the 2nd planet in the unlock chain).

Ok, that sentence makes more sense now.  Liths are lockboxes that can only be completed by doing a certain mission (Void Fissures). In those missions, enemies sometimes drop “reactant”, and after 10 pickups and a successful mission, you get to open the Lith.  These missions are not terribly common (at least at the start) and the one I did was quite difficult.  Next topic.

I don’t understand what the levels mean on missions.  I have a level 11 Warframe (the class, Excalibur, good with swords).  I have a level 12 Braton (automatic rifle).  There are some mods on each to augment certain things.  The Warframe has + health and + shields.  the rifle has a flat + 40% damage.  Taking on a level 5-8 mission is a challenge.  Not so much that I am very worried about kicking the bucket, but more so that enemies are bullet sponges and I need to pay a lot of attention to ammo levels.  No ammo – little damage.

There are missions on my map.  I complete them to unlock more nodes on the map for more missions.  I am not seeing any power curve (or rather it appears logarithmic) and future goals are not all that clear.  Some missions are 5 minutes, others are 20.  Wave defense is fun.  Spy missions are not.  Overall, the feedback loop is good so far.  But I’m thinking I need some viable measure of progress in the next 4-5 hours to keep me going.  Using the same class, same skills, same gun for 10 hours…there’s a limit.

My eldest (and youngest to some extent) is bitten with Pokemon.  For kids that age (7), cards are relatively cheap, and there are plenty of books with neat pictures and stories.  There’s the obvious Pokemon Go, but there’s also the TCG mobile game.  And of course, what seems like 20 years of animated shows with Ash & co.  What is fairly interesting is that due to Nintendo’s all-gamers approach, the entry level for these games belies a more complex system.

TCG games as whole are predicated on the concept of deck building.  Either you play a preset deck, or you actually build one by hand.  For now, the kids are happy with just a random deck that I throw together.  I mean, no sense in having Fire Pokemon in a Psychic deck… Once drawn, the card plays are fairly straightforward.  Add energy, run an attack, draw a card.  It is hard to make a mistake, even with semi-random choices.

But then you start paying a bit more attention to the cards.  Some have resistances, or skills that work better on other types.  You start adding and removing some from the deck, piece by piece.  Eventually you realize that some cards are just not fun for you, or that they interrupt your play.  You realize that more cards means more chances, but it also means giving up other items.  Now you’re talking probabilities.

I’ve experienced this myself, when I had my first set way back when.  I thought Magic was way too complicated/expensive for my tastes (still think so) but wanted some sort of TCG experience.  It was fun learning the inner workings of the game.

Now I get to see that again in a kid’s eyes.  It’s small at first, tiny little lights going on.  Then it starts snowballing.  They become comfortable with the concepts.  Then they start sharing them with others.  Then they start looking for similar tactics in other games.  It’s really quite amazing to watch curiosity at play.