It’s quite an indictment of the industry that a game which sells 1m copies is deemed a failure. Moreso that this is somehow seen as the end of Ubisoft. Perhaps the downward trend of the past 4 years is enough to shift them to go private or bought out, but they are far from going away. I tend to think of this a bit like Bethesda or Bungee, where ideas + corporate tend to lack alignment.

Gone are the days where only large game companies can deliver quality games. My backlog is massive, and entirely dwarfed by the glut of gaming possibilities. The odds of any game breaking into the scene and dominating share requires a near perfect storm of factors. The most important of which is that the game absolutely nails the core gameplay loop. Not just throwing stuff at the wall here, but hits it out of the park.

Wukong + Space Marines are perfect examples of this, where the games have an absolutely crystal clear focus on a single aspect, and don’t sprawl out into crazy town. I don’t need a game that offers a buffet of options – I have 12 to choose from already. Fallout 4 has more players today than Starfield, and they are both janky messes of games with too much going on.

If Outlaws failed at 1m in sales, then the failure is in the expectation. The game is not good enough to hit that target, plain and simple. Jedi Survivor didn’t even hit that target in the first month, and it’s a game with lightsabers! Outlaws did have an absolutely massive media push, which certainly cost a pretty penny, but from the first play sessions the vibe was not a positive one.

Buzz is based on balance of positive and negative feedback. You need more of the former to ride a wave forward, and there will always be a ton of the latter. If the first bit out of people’s mouths is “speeders feel bad” or “stealth has issues”, then you’re in for a bad time.

Reputation is also a big part of it. Ubisoft has struggled tremendously of late with their open world games, with just too much stuff and no focus. There’s a fatigue portion to just mini-map icons and the same skinner box with a different coat of paint. And Star Wars is probably at it’s lowest point in a very long time, with a cash cow that’s running on fumes. Andor may have had success, but it’s really the only Star Wars good news story in the past 5 years. The Acolyte set a new low (which is another topic).

I refuse to believe that the dev team thought the game was ready for launch. The “emergency” path to address the stealth problems means that this was in the QA file for a while. The “kitchen sink patch” for speeder control and enemy placements is another damning point for the game director. The game will launch on Steam on Nov 21, which is the last real kick at the can to make some of the investment back.

That AC: Shadows was delayed is hopefully a sign that somewhere, someone in a suit is paying attention. It will also raise expectations that the time is used effectively. Unfortunately, that is after the holiday season and lands right in the pile of the following games that have a similar genre:

• Kingdom Come 2
• Avowed
• Monster Hunter Wilds

If anything, I hope that Ubisoft learns to be humble. The days of AAA dominance are well behind. Wallets are tighter than ever. Gamers have tons of choice, and will spend where there is perceived value. There’s a tremendous opportunity to find that sweet spot again.